The air conditioning market was strong in the first half of the year, but has shown significant weakness in the second half. Nail technology noted that the latest online data of the industry shows that the terminal demand for air conditioners in the cold year of 2019 is much lower than expected, the production and domestic sales are declining, the overall destocking effect of the industry is not obvious, and there is a big price war looming.
Due to the greater impact of the weather, the air conditioning industry in the second half of the development situation is very different. In the first half of the year, the industry is still developing steadily, according to the statistics of Ove Cloud network.
According to Ove Cloud, the total retail sales of the air conditioning industry in the first half of 2018 reached 114.7 billion yuan and 33.22 million units, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5 percent and 11.5 percent, respectively. Among them, online retail sales reached 35 billion yuan, up 42.1%, while retail sales reached 11.73 million, up 30.6% year-on-year. Offline channel retail sales reached 79.8 billion yuan, up 6.8 percent year on year, and retail sales exceeded 21 million units, up 3.2 percent year on year.
Enter the second half of the year, the air conditioning market turns sharply downward, not as negative growth situation. According to the report on China's Home Appliance Industry in the Third Quarter of 2018, the overall scale of China's home appliance market in the third quarter of 2018 was 182.1 billion yuan, down 5.6% year on year, among which the retail sales of air conditioning market fell 8.7% year on year, and the ice-washing market fell 2.2% in total. That is to say, in white electric main product, the air conditioning declines the amplitude most.
According to industry online monitoring, 7.726 million home air conditioners were produced in October 2018, down 20.4 percent year on year, while 7.5065 million units were sold, down 13.9 percent year on year. Among them, 4.9532 million units were shipped domestically, down 24.1% year-on-year, while 2.5533 million units were exported, up 16.4% year-on-year. The upstream compressor production is also under pressure due to the sluggish production and sales of the whole machine. In October, the rotary compressor industry produced 13.061 million units, down 12.47% year-on-year.
2017-2019 October cold Sales of air conditioning industry monthly shift (10,000 units)
Production and marketing is not flourishing, let the industry bear a lot of pressure. Industry on-line analysis thinks, had appeared at the beginning of the 2019 new cold weakness, end demand is much lower than expected, from July began to individual companies begin to digest the inventory control production, but because of inertia, the production of the whole industry until September turning points, the decline in October levels continued to deepen, especially domestic shipment to below 5 million units, became the lowest since three years.
A bigger pressure is that the air conditioning industry's inventory pressure has not dissipated because of weak demand. According to online industry monitoring, the total inventory of the home air conditioning industry reached 42.04 million units at the end of September. It should be noted that according to the data of China Yikang, the retail volume of air conditioners in China was 57.87 million units in 2017.
Under such a large inventory pressure, it is difficult for air-conditioner manufacturers to increase their efforts to stock the channels, and the only feasible way to destock is the price war. Recent air conditioner manufacturers frequently carry out low price promotion, also reflects the effect of destocking before is not obvious, the subsequent market is not optimistic.
Nail technology analysis, the air conditioning industry are greatly influenced by external factors such as real estate, weather, has a strong cyclical characteristics, the first two years of rapid growth for some companies to expand the production capacity, and intensify the offline sales, but as the industry into the consolidation period, blind to expand capacity, vigorously to channel control money will form a larger business risks, at the same time due to high consumption of inventory, need a cycle industry enterprises need to guard against the impact of price war.